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How to interpret a prediction?

How to interpret a prediction?

See properties of a prediction: odds, probability and expected value

Zoltan avatar
Written by Zoltan
Updated over 5 months ago

When you get access to the tips on the website, iOS or Android app, you'll see some properties assigned to it. Let's take a look at what they are.

We'll look at a website example (mobile apps cover most of the things described here as well).

What do you get as a tennis prediction?

A typical prediction looks like this:
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Let's take a look at the columns one by one.

Date

This is the date the match is expected to begin. For matches that have started less than 3 hours ago, we display "In Progress".Β 

Match

The match with the two participant: Player 1 - Player 2.

Prediction

The predicted match winner. We currently only predict the winner of the match, but have plans to cover other markets like Set Betting.

Odds

The odds for the selection. We use decimal odds.

Expected Value

In short, Expected Value = odds * probability - 1, the higher the better. Theoretically, Expected Value (EV) over 0 shows the prediction has long term value.

When we have a fixture, we ask the AI model for the prediction and probability, then calculate the EV.

An example: take that you have a tip with Expected Value (EV) of 4%. Imagine if you play matches of 4% EV 100 times with 1 unit stake. You should be up 4 units after playing all the matches.

Probability

The certainty probability of the prediction, as seen by our Machine Learning model. The higher the better. Probability is not always telling everything, so worth to look at Expected Value instead.

Min Value Odds

The minimum odds required to match the minimum Expected Value thresholds of the users's settings.

Available For

It shows how long the tip is on the website (hours and minutes).

Event

The tournament where the match is played.

Level

The tournament level where the match is played.

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